Friday 20th November 2009

by RazRez Contributor

High unemployment has been pushing more people out of their homes, and the foreclosure mess will likely drag on well into 2010 and perhaps even beyond.  With the broader economic recovery nowhere in sight, it is easy to see why this disaster will persist for a while longer.

A recent report from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that an increasing proportion of fixed-rate home loans, those seen as “responsible” loans unlike their adjustable rate mortgage brethren, are landing in foreclosure.  It used to be that only the riskier subprime loans were a cause for concern, but this report paints a very different picture.

The report also describes that 14 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. To put this into context, 14% is a record-high figure for nine straight quarters.  The highest in over two years!

If one is seeking salvation from an economic recovery, the factors just simply don’t add up.  Unemployment is at record highs and keeps rising, which then puts pressure on the housing market as homeowners default, which in turn ensures that a broader recovery cannot be realized in the near future.

Some in the housing market have lauded the recent rebound in home prices, particularly after suffering through three years of plunging prices. That lifted hopes for the overall economy. Unfortunately, the reality is there is this new force that will keep any recovery derailed.  That force takes the form of too many foreclosed homes that have yet to be dumped on the market.  Prediction: expect a protracted period of never-ending declines in home prices.

The following states, beneficiaries during the housing boom, will be the last to come out of it: Florida, Nevada, California and Arizona. Collectively, they account for 43 percent of new foreclosures.  That’s right.  Four states account for nearly half of all new foreclosures in the United States.  Greed does have a way to come back and bite you.

In Florida, 25% of the mortgages are either past due or in foreclosure.  That’s one in every four!  Nevada is second only to Florida at 23%.  With the continued downward pressure on home prices, and the absence of a real recovery in the economy, it appears that nationwide, home prices are set to fall again, to the tune of up to 10%, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at economy.com.

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